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          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Essex",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 300,
            "predicted": 291,
            "withoutCensus": 289,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Gloucester",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 36,
            "predicted": 41,
            "withoutCensus": 41,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Gloucester",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 28,
            "predicted": 44,
            "withoutCensus": 44,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Hudson",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 510,
            "predicted": 473,
            "withoutCensus": 512,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Hudson",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 658,
            "predicted": 473,
            "withoutCensus": 534,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Hunterdon",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 19,
            "predicted": 15,
            "withoutCensus": 16,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Hunterdon",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 23,
            "predicted": 17,
            "withoutCensus": 18,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Mercer",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 78,
            "predicted": 137,
            "withoutCensus": 147,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Mercer",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 163,
            "predicted": 145,
            "withoutCensus": 162,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Middlesex",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 154,
            "predicted": 184,
            "withoutCensus": 192,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Middlesex",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 141,
            "predicted": 184,
            "withoutCensus": 196,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Monmouth",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 106,
            "predicted": 112,
            "withoutCensus": 114,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Monmouth",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 80,
            "predicted": 115,
            "withoutCensus": 119,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Morris",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 80,
            "predicted": 87,
            "withoutCensus": 94,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Morris",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 84,
            "predicted": 87,
            "withoutCensus": 96,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Ocean",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 108,
            "predicted": 128,
            "withoutCensus": 124,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Ocean",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 113,
            "predicted": 134,
            "withoutCensus": 128,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Passaic",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 159,
            "predicted": 160,
            "withoutCensus": 168,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Passaic",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 161,
            "predicted": 168,
            "withoutCensus": 180,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Salem",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 24,
            "predicted": 20,
            "withoutCensus": 20,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Salem",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 26,
            "predicted": 20,
            "withoutCensus": 20,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Somerset",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 139,
            "predicted": 161,
            "withoutCensus": 193,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Somerset",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 195,
            "predicted": 148,
            "withoutCensus": 191,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Sussex",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 12,
            "predicted": 10,
            "withoutCensus": 9,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Sussex",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 13,
            "predicted": 11,
            "withoutCensus": 10,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Union",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 139,
            "predicted": 233,
            "withoutCensus": 257,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Union",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 205,
            "predicted": 239,
            "withoutCensus": 277,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-03",
            "county": "Warren",
            "horizon": 1,
            "actual": 61,
            "predicted": 53,
            "withoutCensus": 57,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          },
          {
            "origin": "2025-12",
            "target": "2026-06",
            "county": "Warren",
            "horizon": 2,
            "actual": 55,
            "predicted": 53,
            "withoutCensus": 59,
            "censusYear": 2019,
            "trainingLastTarget": "2025-12"
          }
        ],
        "mae": 32.660714285714285,
        "withoutCensusMae": 31.00595238095238,
        "censusErrorReductionPct": -5.336916874640041
      },
      "features": [
        "Last-quarter log growth",
        "Year-over-year log growth",
        "Average recent log growth",
        "Quarter seasonality sine",
        "Quarter seasonality cosine",
        "Log cases relative to households",
        "Log household count",
        "Relative log median income",
        "Average household size"
      ]
    }
  },
  "notes": [
    "Census 2015\u20132019 is used for origins from March 2021 through December 2025; Census 2020\u20132024 is used from March 2026. Forecast vintages stay fixed at the forecast origin.",
    "Validation uses revised administrative histories and potentially revised Census extracts; it is not a reconstruction of exact real-time data vintages.",
    "Two-quarter county predictions are independent of the statewide monthly forecast. Differences between their totals are expected. No causal or eligibility inference is made."
  ]
}